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Home Sales Predictor – April showers bring May flowers
It feels like every day there are contradictory reports in the media about the current housing market.
‘It’s too hot, the bubble’s going to burst’
‘The market’s cooling, but prices are high’
‘Inventory is up’
‘Inventory is still synched’
Which way is up? It likely depends on your market. But this continued uncertainty is exhausting consumers. According to Fannie Mae’s March edition of their Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI), “Only 24% of consumers think now is a good time to buy a home — the lowest reading ever recorded in a monthly survey conducted by Fannie Mae since 2010.” Additionally, according to the survey, “73 percent of Americans think the economy is on the wrong track.”
On the other hand, a Redfin survey from February said 1 in 3 people were looking to relocate. So which is it? Are people moving or staying put?
Only time will tell what actions our will clients take, but based on our data, we predict home sales will slow from what we’ve been used to over the last two years, but even that pessimistic attitude reported of buyers won’t stop the continued sales.
The Home Sales Predictor
Here’s a look at our most recent data:
Our March prediction was just 1% off with 536K home sales. That was a 28% increase in home sales from February, but a 6% decrease year-over-year.
Based on the activity of agents in our products we predict there will be a 5% increase from March 564K home sales in April and then another 10% increase in May with 620K home sales. That’s a 7% decrease year over year for April, but a 2% increase YOY for May.
So while the market may be cooling compared to 2020/2021 standards we are still expecting to see 620K home sales next month which means it’s not cooling down all that much, at least not yet.
We of course know that continued inflation and interest rate hikes are going to impact the market, time will tell how much.
At the end of the day, homes are still going to be bought and sold. The question really lies in whether or not the market will stabilize enough for it to become affordable again for first time homebuyers to enter the market. Or, if the barrier to entry will continue to get tighter. It’s Fair Housing Month which means this is a great time to take a step back and see how you are helping your community. NAR has a ton of resources to help you assess and see what more you can do to help combat the barrier to entry.
The dream of homeownership should be able to belong to anyone. As brokers and agents you have the power to help make those dreams come true. You also have the most insight into how your market is performing and how your buyers and sellers can get the most bang for their buck. Make sure your systems and processes are top notch in order to help your clients make the right decision for their market.
The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.
Get our Home Sales Predictor Monthly Report delivered to your inbox!
What Seasonality? Home Sales Hold Strong
Summer is winding down in many parts of the country. Kids are going back to school while professionals head back to the daily grind. One thing not winding down? Home sales.
There were nearly 600K homes sold in July with 591K home sales, meaning our prediction was within 1%. While that is a 10% decrease in home sales from June to July and a 4% decrease YOY that is still a very strong month of home sales and it looks like it should stay steady over the next few months, really just throwing our usual seasonality for a loop.
So, what’s ahead for August and September?
Predictions
Based on activity inside our MoxiWorks products we predict there will be a 2% increase in home sales in August with 601K homes sold followed by a 10% decrease in September with 538K home sales.
While that would mean a 9% decrease for September YOY, when comparing it to a more normal year like 2018 or 2019 that’s a 27% and 17% increase respectively for this time of year which definitely points to this wonky year of home sales continuing.
So, what about home prices?
The big thing we’ve been talking about around the virtual MoxiWorks lunch table this past month is less about the waning inventory (even though that is of course still a concern) and more about current home prices and interest rates. Interest rates are still at a record low, but, at some point, they will start to increase again as economic principles come into play. Until that happens this will remain a seller’s market with record breaking home prices that are spooking buyers. Because these buyers are spooked another thing we are keeping our eye on is the increase in non-traditional home buying, i.e. iBuyers. Needless to say, there’s a lot happening and it will be interesting to see what these changes mean in the coming months. So how can you and your agents be ready?
Fall & Covid-19
We are of course not ignoring the Delta variant and what that might mean for the Fall and Winter months of home sales, but for now, our message remains the same. Protect yourself and your agents from whatever is coming our way by staying in flow with your sphere. Keep working for your future by staying in flow with your sphere now. If the last 16 months have taught us anything it’s that things can change at a breakneck pace and you don’t want to be left wishing you had kept your book of business fresh, nurtured and full of your future leads.
Until next month.
Strong Spring of Home Sales Continue, Stronger Summer Ahead
We are up to our eyeballs in the inventory shortage. You can’t look at one news site without seeing something about the shortage. This has been going on for months and months, so what gives?
A few things.
First of all, we still strongly believe this is not an inventory shortage, but a listings shortage. The homes and sellers are out there, they just need their trusted real estate agent and advisor (you) to help them understand the value of their home, and how to navigate this frothy market.
But there is something even more important than the pandemic that is impacting inventory.
According to a Statista study in September of 2020, there was a 79% decrease in new homes built between 2010 and 2019. Between 2010 and 2019 there were only 5.8 million new homes built while the three decades before it 27 million, 26 million and 25 million new homes were built respectively. The last time we saw such a low amount of new construction was the 1930s.
This stark decrease is certainly a factor in what we are seeing today alongside the pandemic.
But, it doesn’t mean there is a reason to panic.
The fundamentals of why people move (marriage, divorce, new babies, empty nest, new job, retirement, etc) have not changed and will not change. If anything, the new flexibility so many working adults across the US are seeing with remote work is likely to increase and let them move for work, but on their own terms.
And to top this all off, Freddie Mac expects home sales to reach 7.1 million in 2021. 7.1 million homes would be a 25% increase year over year in home sales from 2020 which saw 5.65 million home sales, during a pandemic, while we only say 5.25 million in 2019.
If Freddie Mac is correct in their predictions, we should feel hopeful. Those listings have to come through an agent, will it be you?
Now let’s dig into April and the upcoming May & June outlook.
April Home Sales
April closed out with 539K home sales across the country. That’s 5% less than our prediction of 565K. This was a 3% increase from the home sales in March, but year over year it was a 48% increase. Not at all surprising as April 2020 was when COVID-19 was really setting in across the US and only 364K homes were sold.
May and June home sales prediction
Our May prediction has been adjusted slightly from last month and we are now predicting there will be 622K home sales which would be a 15% increase month over month and 72% year over year.
Based on the activity inside our MoxiWorks products we predict there will be 650K home sales in June which would be a 5% increase month over month and a 29% increase YOY.
You control the listings
Our rallying cry remains that you and your agents have the control to make the market. 7.1 million homes won’t sell themselves.
So do the thoughtful home property reviews, do the comps analysis, show your clients why selling their home is a good idea. Doing these presentations are proven to make these transactions happen.
Our data team just pulled the stats on agents using MoxiPresent with their clients and the results speak for themselves:
- In 2020, agents fully utilizing MoxiPresent did 77% more transactions and saw 93% higher sales volume than those without MoxiPresent.
There is a lot to shake out in the market, so let’s stay proactive and persistent, and let’s make the market.
The Home Sales Predictor is a brand-new set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.
Get our Home Sales Predictor Monthly Report delivered to your inbox!
16 Ways to Make Your CMA Presentations Pop
By Tiana Baur
When it comes to presentations, you have to put your best foot forward. Every other agent out there (more or less) are doing them digitally too, so in order to stand out, you have to do more. Chances are your presentation tool (such as Moxi Present) auto-generates them based off the MLS number you plug in and voila, a perfect presentation with no editing needed. While that’s already a powerful tool, some customization is important in making you stand out above the rest.
We’ve got you covered with tips on seller, buyer, open house, and all other presentation types. Try these to stand out:
Seller Presentations
1. Staging approach
Do you stage every home you list? Do you partner with a staging company? Do you have your photographer work closely with your staging expert to showcase the listing in its best light? Make sure you put your staging methodology, so your prospects/clients can get the whole picture.
2. Marketing strategy
Lay it all out there. Show them stats on the reach and results you’ve gotten on previous marketing efforts for other clients. You can even show them the auto-sent reports they’ll receive when you use Advertise Your Listing.
3. Listing photos
If you’ve done it before you can do it again. Show your expertise and earn credibility by showing recent listings you’ve sold. Chances are if they like the photos from the past listing, they’ll get excited to see the ones you get done for them.
4. Pricing strategy
Even though you’ll likely be explaining the reasons behind your suggested listing price, it’s good to put a few into the presentation as well, so when they are flipping through it after the fact they can refer back to them.
Buyer/Open House Presentations
5. Neighborhood Info
It’s fun for people to picture themselves in a given place. Showcase some favorite restaurants, parks, and activities in the neighborhood they’re looking to buy.
6. School district
Where their kids will be going to school is sometimes the deciding factor in the home buying process. Put some stats and links to the school district’s website so they know you’re thinking about it too.
7. Negotiation stats: “on average, I win 80% of offer negotiations”
You might not have exact numbers but give your prospects and clients an idea of your negotiation skills.
All Presentations
8. Video
It doesn’t matter what kind of presentation you’re creating, you must use video somewhere in it. It can be of the property, of yourself, your past clients, the neighborhood of the subject property – whatever you see fit.
9. Catch eyes with short testimonials
A MUST. While a video testimonial is ideal, some short quotes along WITH video will provide added value and set the tone for the video they’re about to watch. Plus if they’re scanning and don’t have time for the video, the quotes will be easy to digest.
10. Supply online and high-end printed version
Having a digital and a printed copy covers all the bases. Maybe they like to take notes while you’re there presenting to them via the digital copy. Maybe they like to take notes after the fact with their spouse on something more tangible. Provide both to make sure they have what they need.
11. Quantify: “My listings, on average, sell within 20 days”
Similar to negotiation, it’s important to quantify your general real estate skills. How long are your listings typically on the market? What’s your satisfaction rating? What percentage of your sphere are repeat and referral clients? Extremely powerful, extremely necessary.
12. Local market data
You want to set expectations right away. If the market has slowed a bit, explain the time on market may be a week or so longer than your average. If there’s super low inventory, tell them patience will be key in finding the right home for said client. Show this in local market data from your provider.
13. Ask questions
At the end of the day, it’s all about them. Show how committed you are by asking them questions and maybe even throwing in a questionnaire or survey into your presentation.
14. The power of your brokerage
Your presentation is probably already brokerage branded, but it doesn’t hurt to add a little more information about the brokerage you’re with. A united front is always a good idea.
15. Personal brand
It’s important to show a strong personal brand with your brokerage brand. Think of your brokerage as the cake and your personal brand as the frosting. It adds some flavor and sets you apart from other agents out there.
16. Consistency
It might seem like a no brainer, but make sure all the fonts and colors match throughout. If you upload any content or screenshots, try to make sure they fit style-wise. It will help you look more professional and put together.
We hope these tips will help your prospects turn into listings and buyers during this busy season. If you’re looking for more tips and tricks on your presentation tool, visit our support site.
Heat Up Your Listing Presentations with INRIX Drive Time
By Tiana Baur
I think we can all agree traffic is the absolute worst. Nothing puts us (or our clients) in a worse mood than leaving ourselves more than enough time to get somewhere, only to find out that we’re still walking through the door late. Which is why, when it comes to buying a home, the potential commute to work and back can make or break the transaction. That’s where INRIX Drive Time comes in.
It’s no secret that INRIX Drive Time wins business. It allows agents to be the trusted advisor they’re meant to be. Our products Moxi Present and Moxi Websites include the Drive Time feature so agents can give their clients and prospects the full picture of a potential home.
INRIX recently came out with their 2017 Traffic Scorecard, which “is the largest and most detailed study of congestion to date. It includes data on 1,360 cities in 38 countries covering more than 100,000 square miles (250,000 square kilometers) of road and focuses on congestion across all times of the day and week.” It also shows the top 10 most congested areas in the U.S., which Los Angeles still holds the top spot for, which cost LA drivers $2,828 in 2017. For our home town, Seattle, coming in at number nine, it cost our drivers $1,853.
Here’s some other fun facts from the 2017 Traffic Scorecard:
- Los Angeles commuters spent over 100 hours in traffic jams in 2017. Let that settle in a little bit.
- On average, Americans spent one hour a week stuck in traffic on their commutes in 2017. That may not seem like a lot but think about how that’s the average for ALL of America, not just the cities. Even then, one hour a week is 52 hours per year. Think about what else you could do with that time!
Here’s the thing. An agent not only has the duty to find their clients the perfect home, but they also have the duty to find them the perfect situation. It’s their purpose; what gets them out of bed every morning and what makes them so passionate about the work they do.
Of course, the perfect situation, includes the best commute possible (or at least one that doesn’t completely ruin their day to day life). This fantastic tool – with the most accurate traffic data – helps them do just that.
If you want to see INRIX Drive Time in action, we have it in our sample presentations on our website.
You can find out more about INRIX here.
How INRIX Drive Time® Wins Business
By Maddie Jostol
We dedicate a huge portion of our lives to commuting. Commutes continue to get longer, hugely affecting where people choose to live.
The average American commutes over 25 minutes each way to and from work, according to Business Insider. This is the longest it’s been since the Census began tracking commute time in 1980, having grown 20% since then, as reported by Washington Post.
Agents are challenged to take this into consideration when finding a client their perfect home. Buyers need to know what their commute will be before putting in an offer on a house. The good news? This is really easy for those of you who are Moxi Present users. Every MLS listing on a client’s list can be shown with the actual driving commute time to any location.
Where is the property in comparison to my office? My kids’ school? Using data integration, Moxi Present’s Drive Time feature shows the buyer what their commute will be like during the home search process. Each Moxi Present presentation is powered with MLS data integration, delivering information to your client and updated in real-time. This integration means that each and every time your client opens the presentation, the property information is up-to-date, no matter when you created it. This feature is in addition to functions that allow agents to add rich media, such as video, customize pages, show financial comparisons, and much more.
When looking for a new home, it’s important for homeowners to be able to imagine themselves there – how will their furniture look in the home? What’s the community like? What school district is it in? And, of course, what will their everyday commute be like? Offering presentations with Drive Time lends a personal touch that achieves this. Your client is automatically given context regarding what their life would be like living in a given home.
Trust us… Your clients will love it. Moxi Present is built to enable agents to give their clients a personalized, unique experience. Agents can deliver data to their clients that is continually up-to-date and a user experience that is unsurpassed.
Having Drive Time in your presentation gives it a personal touch, which is key during this process. These are the details that add up and make for happy clients. The better experience your clients have working with you, the more likely they are to generate referral business for you. Growing your repeat and referral business and strengthening your sphere means you’ll be able to rely less on low quality purchased leads. Exceeding expectations is vital in today’s competitive market – use tools that will not only meet client expectations, but will blow them away.
Want to see for yourself? Check out a sample presentation here.
This Brokerage Does Onboarding the Right Way
By Tiana Baur
Some brokerages just get it. They embrace change. They prepare; they future-proof their brokerage. And they totally rock agent onboarding. William Raveis is a shining example of just that.
William Raveis was founded in 1974, and is the No. 1 family-owned real estate company in the Northeast, and No. 9 real estate company in the country, according to REAL trends. They have 120 offices in nine states, with 4,000 agents that account for $9 billion in sales volume annually.
We recently held a webinar with RE Technology and were lucky to have a special guest, Bill Gamelli, COO at William Raveis. We asked him what drove him to MoxiWorks and he answered by saying, “When we started looking at MoxiWorks, one of the things that got me really excited and got my team really excited, was the simplicity and the open platform that MoxiWorks provided as well.” He went on to say, “The simplicity and the focus on SOI were things that were really, really important to us. And increasing the agents’ productivity.”
From our end, Daniel Bailey, Senior Account Manager at MoxiWorks, added, “The Moxi rollout at Raveis was by far one of the best rollouts I’ve participated in. The team followed the success recipe in our engagement cookbook to a tee, but really made it their own. They went the extra mile to make sure agents were prepped for launch by getting started with engage materials to build excitement though constant communication. They understood agents need extra help adopting new technology, so the rollout team lead by the COO himself visited every office in their org to make sure agents were trained and ready to go! Not only that, they invested in other tech to help agents get their databases into Engage without the headache.”
The Raveis launch was carefully coordinated on both ends, but what made it so smooth, was their step-by-step training program. Brokerages can give their agents tools, but if they don’t train them, the adoption rate is low and the ROI is nonexistent. We’re lucky at MoxiWorks to have clients like Raveis that understand the importance of onboarding their agents the right way.
So, did the simplicity factor of Moxi and training agents pay off? Bill said, “Getting agents to understand the power and simplicity of what MoxiWorks does, creates an adoption rate that far surpasses our expectations. As of September, we had already reached our adoption rate that we had hoped for by year end. The simplicity factor is critically important.”
Raveis also understands the importance of keeping up with technology and embracing technology that has an open platform with an API that allows the pieces of their ecosystem to share data with one another. Bill said, “When you talk about the future, much of what we’re doing now is to look at how we can integrate other technologies as well. Let’s face it, we have suffered in this industry with disbarred data sets.”
If you’d like to hear more about William Raveis and their MoxiWorks onboarding journey, you can watch the recorded webinar below.
This Presentation Tool Wins More Business
By Tiana Baur
Moxi Works recently conducted a case study on our popular presentation and CMA product. Why? Well, we were curious to see how agents performed when they used the product vs. how they performed when they didn’t. To do this, we chose Windermere Real Estate agents in Western Washington as the sample for the case study. There are roughly 2,700 Windermere agents in the Western Washington region. We looked at their agent activity for the 2016 calendar year and found some seriously insane results. But before we reveal them, you deserve some background info first.
Who is Windermere?
Windermere Real Estate is ranked the largest regional real estate company in the Western U.S. with over 300 offices and 6,000 agents in 11 Western states. Founded in 1972, Windermere has been family owned and operated since. They are based in Seattle, Washington and are heavily involved in the communities their offices are in. You can learn more about Windermere and what they’re all about here.
What is Moxi Present?
Moxi Present is a tool that allows agents to easily create seller, buyer, and open house presentations. They are MLS-connected, updated to the minute and every property can be shown with the actual driving commute time to any location. This presentation and CMA tool also allows agents to include video and other rich media right into their presentation and enables agents to create listing flyers in a snap.
What did we find out?
Seller-Side Transactions
Seller agents who used Moxi Present averaged 6.4 sales in the 2016 year, while those that didn’t only averaged 4.17 sales, meaning that seller agents using Moxi Present had 53% more listing sales.
Buyer-Side Transactions
Buyer agents that used Moxi Present averaged 5.71 sales, while those who didn’t averaged 4.30 sales, helping those that took advantage of the tool average 34% more buyer-side transactions.
Total Transactions
When adding those numbers up, that’s 12.08 sides for agents who used Moxi Present and only 8.42 for those who did not. Windermere agents who used Moxi Present enjoyed 43% MORE business in 2016! We probably don’t need to point out the fact that this is a huge change to an agent’s bottom line.
As you can probably guess, we were elated when we figured out the results. We are founded on the goal to make agents more productive and brokerages more profitable. The numbers from this case study speak for themselves. Agents that use Moxi Present, a tool their brokerage provides for them, do more business than those that don’t.
Agents Using Moxi Present Enjoyed 43% More Business in 2016
43?! No way. That number may come as a shock to some, but we can prove it.
Moxi Present is an industry-leading CMA and presentation tool with a very high adoption rate. It’s a tool that allows agents to easily create seller, buyer, and open house presentations. They are MLS-connected, updated to the minute and every property can be shown with the actual driving commute time to any location. This CMA tool also allows agents to include video and other rich media right into their presentation and enables agents to create listing flyers in a snap.
We were curious what results agents were seeing from using it, so we conducted an analysis. We used Windermere Real Estate agents in Western Washington as the sample for the case study. There are roughly 2,700 Windermere agents in the Western Washington region. We looked at their agent activity for the 2016 calendar and here’s what we found:
Seller-Side Transactions 
Seller agents who used Moxi Present averaged 6.4 sales in the 2016 year, while those that didn’t only averaged 4.17 sales, meaning that seller agents using Moxi Present had 53% more listing sales.
Buyer-Side Transactions
Buyer agents that used Moxi Present averaged 5.71 sales, while those who didn’t averaged 4.30 sales, helping those that took advantage of the tool average 34% more buyer-side transactions.
Total Transactions
When adding those numbers up, that’s 12.08 sides for agents who used Moxi Present and only 8.42 for those who did not. Windermere agents who used Moxi Present enjoyed 43% MORE business in 2016! We probably don’t need to point out the fact that this is a huge change to an agent’s bottom line.
York Baur, CEO of Moxi Works said, “This is the power of Moxi Present. The agents that embrace technology and the tools their brokerages are providing them, are the ones that are winning. The numbers don’t lie.”
One last fun fact: over half-a-million Moxi Present presentations have been created to date. That’s a LOT of presentations. Find out more at moxiworks.com and download the case study here to see exactly what we found!
Prefer to see than read? Catch this video below.
Using Neighborhood Recaps for Lead Generation
As a real estate agent, you’re always looking for lead generation tips that produce high-quality leads while remaining cost-effective. Staying relevant and reaching new audiences can be challenging. It’s easy to get caught up using the same methods, even if they aren’t working for you. So, why not mix it up and try something new?
Try this: Put together a thorough neighborhood recap and promote it via your go-to channels.
Create a neighborhood recap of the transactions in a given area over the past quarter or year to date. The best part? This can all be done quickly and easily for those agents using Moxi Present. All you need to do is create a new presentation, fill in the parameters, and the MLS data will auto-fill. Select a handful of home sales that happened within your chosen area and timeframe to give a market snapshot, comparing properties and showing trends. This ease is what makes neighborhood recaps possible as an efficient lead generation source.
Check out this neighborhood recap presentation to get an idea of what you could include for your local area.
Be strategic about the area you choose as this recap positions you as an expert. Homeowners appreciate the feeling that their realtor knows their aimed neighborhood like the back of their hand. It’s a token of comfort in a taxing process.
Once you’ve created a robust neighborhood recap, it’s time to promote it through multiple channels for lead generation. The presentation can serve as its own landing page using Moxi Present, or you can post it to a blog post. Then drive traffic to it through social media (both organic and paid), paid search ads, and email marketing. Different agents prefer different channels, so select which ones work for you and your audience. Find where your strengths are and where you generate leads most effectively, and leverage those channels with the valuable piece of content you’ve created. If you like more traditional marketing methods, you could also choose a local printer to print a handful of presentations onto fine paper and mail out hard copies.
If someone looking for a home in an area sees your neighborhood recap online, finds it valuable, and learns from it, you instantly become a trusted advisor. You are then someone who can guide them through a thoughtful, educated decision making process because you’ve already proven that you have the know-how and expertise that they need.
It’s a perfect scenario: they’ve been thinking about making a move, are entering a new stage in life, or have been chatting with their spouse about moving, you present the information they need to move the conversation forward. Who should they contact if they want more information? You, of course. So, you meet up with them to discuss the market, the neighborhood, and ultimately, the opportunity for you to find them their dream home.
