Facebook
X
Pinterest
Copy Link
A reversion to the mean? — July Home Sales Predictor
It’s nearing the end of July and as I’m sure you’re witnessing every day, the market continues to cool. We’ve been paying close attention to the data and we are still feeling confident that this is just a cooling and a soft landing, and not a screeching halt.
Let’s take a look at the data.
In June, there were 572K home sales, which is 5% more than we predicted. This is the first time in 5 months the number of home sales has been higher than what we predicted. That was 19% fewer homes than were sold in June of 2021, but, as we’ll get into with this month’s data, we still believe this is just a reversion to the mean, and a cooling of the market, not a crash or any reason to panic.
“Looking at the data, nothing is indicating that the sky is falling,” said Ali Rae Lundberg, MoxiWorks Lead Data Scientist
In July we predict there will be 4% less homes sold than in June with 552K homes sold across the US. And finally, in August we expect to see a 1% increase from July with 559K home sales. These numbers we are seeing are bringing us much more in line with the pre-covid seasonality (see chart below for the comparison).
Sold listings 2016-2022 (Jan – Aug). Source: MoxiWorks
Looking at the chart, we are currently hovering right around where we were in 2018/2019 for total number of sold listings in Q3, but still well above 2016/2017. We’ll keep an eye on this, but it’s no surprise to see that we’ve dipped so much for 2020/2021 since those years were the exception not the norm.
“The biggest question that still remains in our minds is if we are the top of inflation & mortgage rate hikes, or if there is a little more to go before we hit that ceiling,” said Cass Herrin, Director of Data Services, MoxiWorks. “The housing market doesn’t like uncertainty just like most markets don’t like uncertainty, but looking at the data there is no need to panic.”
We’ve been saying it for months, but while the national headlines are important to be aware of, what really matters is what’s happening in your local market. That’s what your clients need to be focused on. Remain the expert in your local market. Are prices dropping? Is there more room for negotiation? Help them navigate the climate in their market.
Yes the days of insanely quick sales may be gone, but the market has not dried up and people still need to buy and sell their homes. Stick to your fundamentals. Be the expert and you will make it through this cooling period and come out better on the other side.
See you next month!
The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.
Get our Home Sales Predictor Monthly Report delivered to your inbox!
June Home Sales Predictor
We are halfway through 2022. It’s kind of hard to believe, but also not surprising given the rollercoaster of a year it has already been.
We knew going into this year there was no chance it would be like the two previous years when it came to home sales. There simply are not enough homes to keep the same scalding hot demand we have seen since the start of the pandemic. Instead, we are starting to see what we expected would happen this year — a consistent decrease in year-over-year sold listings each month. And now, the state of the economy is exacerbating that decrease.
As we look ahead to our predictions for June and July, our model says we should expect to see 543K closed listings in June and 524k closed listings in July. That’s a 21 and 23% decrease YOY, respectively. July is historically a slower time for home sales, but with inflation, rising interest rates, home prices and lack of inventory we expect to see even fewer homes sold than our model is predicting as factoring uncertainty into a prediction model is rather difficult.
“The banner year agents saw last year isn’t going to continue. But, we also still do not expect to see anything like ‘08, ‘09. Right now is the time for agents to double down on their systems and processes to nurture their sphere and find listings. Going back to basics and making sure your foundation is solid is going to be critical. We‘ve seen this movie before. We know how resilient the housing industry is and we expect it to remain that way through this potential downturn.”
– York Baur, MoxiWorks CEO
There may be more uncertainty ahead, but as York said, this industry is resilient. Brokerages and their agents are equipped to handle whatever comes their way as long as they stick to their foundation and focus on sphere.
Until next month.
The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.
Get our Home Sales Predictor Monthly Report delivered to your inbox!
Allison Gaddy of International Association of Expert Partners teams up with MoxiWorks to offer eXp agents access to leading technology
Exclusive new deal will power agent productivity through a suite of technology products
SEATTLE, Wa. (June 21, 2022) – MoxiWorks, the leading real estate technology platform, announced today a new deal with Allison Gaddy and International Association of Expert Partners. Through this collaboration, eXp Realty agents will now have access to the best-in-class suite of solutions MoxiWorks offers.
MoxiWorks currently serves more than 800 brokerages representing more than 400,000 agents across the globe. Their suite of solutions, focused on helping brokerages and their agents increase productivity and sell more homes, was built around the sphere methodology. It’s all about nurturing the people who know, like and trust you, instead of focusing on cold leads. This deal opens the door for eXp agents to leverage MoxiWorks’ technology to power their businesses for the first time.
“I’m ecstatic about this alignment with MoxiWorks,” said Allison Gaddy, Founding Partner of International Association of Expert Partners. “MoxiWorks is the crème de la crème of real estate CRMs today, especially when it comes to Ninja Selling. It has the undeniable power to level up agents’ businesses in every area from marketing and AI-driven lead follow up, to agents who are focused on recruiting and retention. This is a game-changing technology for agents.”
International Association of Expert Partners, founded in 2020 by Don Hobbs and Allison Gaddy is dedicated to empowering real estate agents by helping team leaders, brokers and budding agent leaders create more time and money freedom through identifying, nurturing, building and retaining talent. Their focus is to elevate agents from the mindset of a transactionally based sales role to the status of true business owner. Expert Partners is devoted to working with industry technology partners who are dedicated to delivering the most modern, best-in-class technologies and processes to help agents achieve exponential growth and peak performance. Through these partnerships, Expert Partners serves as a trusted advisor to agents seeking to advance their technology. They are successfully accomplishing this by creating and training other influential industry leaders and this new collaboration with MoxiWorks is going to help them continue to accomplish this mission.
“This is such a unique time to be in the real estate industry,” said Georgia Perez, EVP Strategic Growth & Emerging Markets, MoxiWorks. “Technology has brought us to a place of great growth, abundance and knowledge, and it’s only going to get better and more sophisticated from here. The work Allison and her team at Expert Partners are doing is helping propel this industry forward and we’re excited to be able to work with them firsthand to give eXp agents access to our robust technology and the best recruiting and productivity platform in the industry.”
Expert Partners will give eXp agents interested in the MoxiWorks products access to MoxiWorks’ CMA — MoxiPresent, their CRM — MoxiEngage, and their robust marketing and email marketing products through MoxiImpress and ActivePipe, now powered by MoxiWorks. The whole suite works together to help agents be more productive and give them back precious time to really focus on building the relationships within their sphere that will produce repeat and referral business for years to come.
To learn about how you can gain access to MoxiWorks through Expert Partners, visit expertpartnerstechsuite.com.
About MoxiWorks
MoxiWorks is a comprehensive open platform system for large residential real estate brokerages that serves over 800 brokerages and 400,000 agents nationwide, accounting for more than 20% of the transactions in the U.S. MoxiWorks’ customer retention over the past seven years stands proudly at 97%. Their integrated tools are centered on sphere methodology that increases agents’ repeat and referral business by 54%, while lowering overall technology, training, and support costs for the brokerage. The open platform known as the MoxiCloud has tools from more than 100 partners that integrate to create unique brokerage solutions. Find more information at moxiworks.com.
MoxiWorks – Let’s sell more homes together
###
For more information on this topic and other press inquiries at MoxiWorks, please contact Jordan Barrish at Jordan.barrish@moxiworks.com.
Home Sales Predictor – Will Summer bring a cool down?
In parts of the world, Summer is starting to really heat up, while it seems the housing market might be cooling. Or, at least, starting to cool.
In April we predicted there would be 564k home sales, but we ended up with 4.5% less with 538k home sales. That’s a 1% decrease in the number of homes sold in March and a 12% decrease from the same time the year before.
Source: MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor May-Jun ’22
In May we predict there will be 594k home sales which would be a 10% increase from May (albeit a 3% decrease from 2021).
In June we expect another 4% increase in home sales with 620k home sales. While that’s a pretty decent jump back up from April, it’s actually a 12% decrease from June 2021. Even with that decrease, pre-pandemic we historically averaged 557k home sales in June so that’s an 11% increase over historic rates. So what does all of this mean amidst continued synching of the inventory belt, rising inflation and overall concerns of a recession?
“Inventory will continue to be a problem. Construction has not kept up in the last decade which means supply & demand will remain out of balance. Even with interest rates and other effects from the economy dampening demand, it will not dampen it enough for supply to beat out demand because we’ve underbuilt for a decade. Ultimately, we’re not going to have another ‘08, ‘09, ‘10.” — York Baur, MoxiWorks CEO
“2022 won’t bring us a 2008, but it won’t be 2021 either. Transactions might be slowing down, but home prices are not. And inventory remains tight. Since interest rates have gone up, many homeowners are sitting on houses that are worth way more than when they bought them. They also have incredibly low loans so the incentive to sell and move up isn’t there because they would lose out on the historically low interest rates they currently have. So it’s both creation of housing, and also people deciding to sell that will continue to impact inventory.” — Cass Herrin, MoxiWorks Director of Data Services
So what’s the advice for agents right now? Now is the time to nurture your sphere. With all of this impending it will likely become increasingly difficult to find new listings, and buyers for those new listings, while the market shakes itself back out. If your clients are in a good place to sell, tell them. Are your clients in a place where they can afford some investment properties elsewhere? Tell them. Be their guide and help them not miss out on a good opportunity.
Tell us, what’s it like in your market. Are things starting to cool or is it still blazing?
See you next month!
The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.
Get our Home Sales Predictor Monthly Report delivered to your inbox!
Home Sales Predictor – April showers bring May flowers
It feels like every day there are contradictory reports in the media about the current housing market.
‘It’s too hot, the bubble’s going to burst’
‘The market’s cooling, but prices are high’
‘Inventory is up’
‘Inventory is still synched’
Which way is up? It likely depends on your market. But this continued uncertainty is exhausting consumers. According to Fannie Mae’s March edition of their Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI), “Only 24% of consumers think now is a good time to buy a home — the lowest reading ever recorded in a monthly survey conducted by Fannie Mae since 2010.” Additionally, according to the survey, “73 percent of Americans think the economy is on the wrong track.”
On the other hand, a Redfin survey from February said 1 in 3 people were looking to relocate. So which is it? Are people moving or staying put?
Only time will tell what actions our will clients take, but based on our data, we predict home sales will slow from what we’ve been used to over the last two years, but even that pessimistic attitude reported of buyers won’t stop the continued sales.
The Home Sales Predictor
Here’s a look at our most recent data:
Our March prediction was just 1% off with 536K home sales. That was a 28% increase in home sales from February, but a 6% decrease year-over-year.
Based on the activity of agents in our products we predict there will be a 5% increase from March 564K home sales in April and then another 10% increase in May with 620K home sales. That’s a 7% decrease year over year for April, but a 2% increase YOY for May.
So while the market may be cooling compared to 2020/2021 standards we are still expecting to see 620K home sales next month which means it’s not cooling down all that much, at least not yet.
We of course know that continued inflation and interest rate hikes are going to impact the market, time will tell how much.
At the end of the day, homes are still going to be bought and sold. The question really lies in whether or not the market will stabilize enough for it to become affordable again for first time homebuyers to enter the market. Or, if the barrier to entry will continue to get tighter. It’s Fair Housing Month which means this is a great time to take a step back and see how you are helping your community. NAR has a ton of resources to help you assess and see what more you can do to help combat the barrier to entry.
The dream of homeownership should be able to belong to anyone. As brokers and agents you have the power to help make those dreams come true. You also have the most insight into how your market is performing and how your buyers and sellers can get the most bang for their buck. Make sure your systems and processes are top notch in order to help your clients make the right decision for their market.
The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.
Get our Home Sales Predictor Monthly Report delivered to your inbox!
Home Sales Predictor – Spring season of selling
It’s officially Spring!
Hopefully your allergies aren’t as painful as your busted March Madness bracket. Do you know what’s not busted? The housing market. At least for now.
Despite the daily news articles making it sound like the housing market is doomed, people still bought and sold a lot of homes last month. 414K in fact. This was 3% fewer homes than we predicted, however with the seasonality prior to the pandemic we used to see on average 300K home sales in February, so things are still looking pretty bright.
What’s even brighter? March and April.
We expect to see a 31% increase in home sales in March with 543K and an additional 4% increase in April with 567K homes sold across the U.S.
Now while March and April look bright, we aren’t ready to make any strong claims for the rest of the year. There are so many factors at play here, it’s truly hard to predict if we will continue on this path, or if outside forces will cause things to dip. Based on the data we are seeing now, our data analysts predict it will be more of a soft landing as we finally settle into a new normal.
No matter what the future holds, what remains constant is the critical role brokers and agents play for consumers. Mortgage rates, inflation, the war on Ukraine, all of these pieces of uncertainty are scary. But trusted advisors like you can take the headlines and can truly drill down on what it’s like, right now, in your corner of the world.
You’re the expert who can guide your clients to know if it’s the right time to buy or sell. Bring them comfort in the fact that yes, mortgage rates are rising, but as our friend and economist Matthew Gardner shared last week, the financial experts are predicting that even with inflation, and everything else happening right now, that by the end of the year mortgage rates will hover just around 4%, which is still historically low.
It’s vital to remember (and remind your clients) that every market is different right now. Some markets have really benefited from the Great Relocation. Others are finally getting some new construction to add to their inventory. You are the expert on the ground. Be the expert and the mentor for your clients in your area. You know more than anyone else around.
The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.
Get our Home Sales Predictor Monthly Report delivered to your inbox!
MoxiWorks and ActivePipe recognized among HousingWire’s prestigious Tech 100
HousingWire cited MoxiWorks for its partnerships “to meet the industry demand for an end-to-end tech solution.”
Seattle WA, (March 21, 2022) — MoxiWorks – the industry-leading real estate technology platform — has been recognized by HousingWire as part of their 2022 Tech 100 awards. ActivePipe, acquired by MoxiWorks in February, was also named to the prestigious list for the second year in a row.
“Thanks to our team’s consistent efforts and drive, MoxiWorks has experienced phenomenal growth,” said York Baur, CEO of MoxiWorks. “We have made notable acquisitions, launched new products to bring agents and brokerages up to the top of their game, and we’ve been leading the charge in innovation.”
HousingWire made special note of MoxiWorks for eschewing the “one-size-fits-all” model, noting their “partnerships with other platforms … through their MoxiCloud partner program, currently comprising more 150 ReTech vendors.” They found that these partnerships give MoxiWorks clients “access to the best of the best and positively open an interconnectivity ecosystem for more data, more transactions, more success across the board.”
In its recognition of ActivePipe, HW cited its “more than 150% year-over-year growth for the past three years in the U.S. market.” In 2021, according to HousingWire, more than 100 new brokerages began using ActivePipe’s email marketing software. Aside from its previous recognition by HW, ActivePipe was also named Most Innovative Scale-Up Proptech for Sales & Marketing at the inaugural national Proptech Awards.
“These two wins couldn’t come at a more perfect time,” said Ash Farrugia, co-founder and CEO of ActivePipe, and now Chief Product Officer at MoxiWorks. “We couldn’t be more proud of the work we’ve done as a company, and are now thrilled to be with MoxiWorks. By bringing our two powerhouses together we are creating the best and brightest products and people in the world of proptech and real estate.”
To learn more about MoxiWorks and ActivePipe and how they can benefit your business, visit moxiworks.com.
About MoxiWorks
MoxiWorks is a comprehensive open platform system for large residential real estate brokerages that serves over 800 brokerages and 400,000 agents nationwide, accounting for more than 20% of the transactions in the U.S. MoxiWorks’ customer retention over the past seven years stands proudly at 97%. Their integrated tools are centered on sphere methodology that increases agents’ repeat and referral business by 54%, while lowering overall technology, training, and support costs for the brokerage. The open platform known as the MoxiCloud has tools from more than 150 partners that integrate to create unique brokerage solutions.
About ActivePipe
The ActivePipe Platform uses predictive data technology to identify high value contacts in a real estate agent’s database. It analyzes their behavior and interprets their needs to personalize communication and automatically nurture contacts. The company is based in Melbourne, Victoria, with offices in Austin, Texas and Washington D.C. and has been backed by premier investors including NAB Ventures, Firemark Ventures (IAG), PieLAB Ventures, Second Century Ventures, AS1 Growth Partners, and Asia Principal Capital. ActivePipe successfully entered the US market in 2018 and is now considered one of the most leading-edge marketing platforms in the market. In February 2022, ActivePipe was acquired by MoxiWorks.
Home Sales Predictor – The housing roller coaster ride continues
2022 has kicked off our year of home sales much more similar to 2021 than we originally predicted.
We predicted there would be 477k home sales in January, but we ended up with 408K home sales, which was just a 1% decrease from the number of homes sold in January of 2021. We originally predicted a 15% increase YOY.
So why the slower start?
Our MoxiWorks data team shared a few speculations:
- Price acceleration has continued while inventory has continued to tighten. We are likely reaching the end of the massive pool of people who would buy houses right now.
- Overall consumer confidence with the direction of the economy
- The five impending interest rate hikes this year
- In January inflation hit 7.5% – the highest it’s been since 1982
- The Omicron variant spikes across the country during January and into February
The good news? Our prediction data comes from agent activity inside our products, so while there appears to be a slight delay in those home sales, that will still bear fruit, most specifically during the month of March.
Feb/Mar Prediction
We predict that February will result in 429k home sales which would be a 5% increase from January. And then we expect to see things tick back up with 613K home sales in March, which will be a 43% increase.
We historically see some of the largest jumps month over month between Feb and Mar, but we haven’t seen a 43% increase in any month over month since Feb/Mar of 2017.
Source: MoxiWorks Feb-22 Home Sales Predictor
We expect the next three months will likely give us our trends (and maybe new seasonality?) for 2022.
We’ve been on an absolute tear of home sales for essentially the entire duration of the pandemic, and, well, all things must end. Pandemic or otherwise.
We’re keeping a close eye on it all and are eager to see how it turns out.
We’d love to hear from you. Respond and let us know what it’s looking like in your market — is it starting to slow down or are you still busier than ever? What are your predictions for the next few months?
This data is provided by insights from our MoxiWorks data team. All data is based on activity inside our MoxiWorks products that correlates the activity of our users with the number of closed listings two months into the future. Learn more about the Home Sales Predictor here.
The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.
Get our Home Sales Predictor Monthly Report delivered to your inbox!
MoxiWorks rounds out end-to-end solution for enterprise brokerages with back office product, MoxiBalance
MoxiBalance joins MoxiWorks’ slate of products driving brokerage profitability through increased productivity
Seattle, WA (January 25, 2022) — MoxiWorks, the leading real estate technology platform, announced today the launch of their back office system, MoxiBalance. MoxiBalance is designed for brokerage leaders seeking to streamline and facilitate record-keeping in their enterprise office. MoxiBalance evolved from back office solution, Reeazily, which MoxiWorks acquired in 2021.
With the addition of MoxiBalance, MoxiWorks now offers a complete end-to-end, lead-to-close, solution for enterprise brokerages. The back office solution joins their easy-to-use suite of tools including their CMA, CRM, websites, and marketing & lead generation solutions all focused on improving and increasing productivity across the brokerage.
“MoxiBalance, formerly reeazily, was built by real estate for real estate when RE/MAX Northern Illinois needed a better system for franchise membership management, billing, and reporting,” said Senior Director of Product Management, Jim Smoak. “MoxiBalance is robust and intuitive, and fully equipped to handle complex back office reporting for enterprise brokerages of any size.”
MoxiBalance is an enterprise solution designed to be an end-to-end for brokerages. The system manages the movement of money in clear, reportable, and convenient ways to match the bustling pace of a growing membership, while providing a secure platform to manage your business. MoxiBalance provides all of the features of a robust custom records system with the flexibility of cloud-based software. This provides the best of both systems for optimal back office tech. Brokerages powered by MoxiBalance can:
- Set up multiple brands and offices and easily connect them to their ledgers
- Design templates for agent-specific commission structures
- Build out items for repeatable billing and fixed and variable costs and,
- Manage agents with the same data populating the rosters of other MoxiWorks products
Additionally, MoxiBalance is designed for strong integration with transaction management systems like DocuSign, DotLoop, or SkySlope. It offers two-way QuickBooks sync and subscription-based purchase. This allows users to manage transactions, review documents, collect earnest money deposits, and even automate and export disbursement letters and funds for closing. Easy-to-use profit/loss, drilldowns, cap tracking, and forecasting reports help to protect both businesses and individual agents.
“We understand how complex the accounting and back office process can be,” said Smoak. “Working with a product that is not only sophisticated and easy to use, but also integrates so seamlessly with your preferred transaction management system will transform your processes and improve the overall functionality of your back office.”
To learn more about MoxiBalance and how it can benefit your business, visit moxiworks.com.
About MoxiWorks
MoxiWorks is a comprehensive open platform system for large residential real estate brokerages that serves over 800 brokerages and 400,000 agents nationwide, accounting for more than 20% of the transactions in the U.S. MoxiWorks’ customer retention over the past seven years stands proudly at 97%. Their integrated tools are centered on sphere methodology that increases agents’ repeat and referral business by 54%, while lowering overall technology, training, and support costs for the brokerage. The open platform known as the MoxiCloud has tools from more than 100 partners that integrate to create unique brokerage solutions. Find more information at moxiworks.com.
MoxiWorks – Let’s sell more homes together
###
For more information on this topic and other press inquiries at MoxiWorks, please contact Jordan Barrish at Jordan.barrish@moxiworks.com.
2022 Home Sales Predictor: Steady Stream of Home Sales to Kick off the New Year
It’s 2022 — time sure is flying!
Our data team is already hard at work analyzing and making predictions for the year ahead, so let’s dive right in.
We finished December with 566K home sales which were 4% more homes sold than we expected. That was a 2% increase from November, but a 3% decrease from the year before in December 2020.
Last month in our reporting we predicted a ‘Strong year of home sales on the horizon in 2022’ and we’re already seeing that come true as we look ahead to January. In any other year, we would expect to see a 20-25% decrease from December to January.
Instead in 2022, we predict we will only see a 16% decrease with 477K homes sold, which is also a 16% increase year over year.
In February we predict we will see a 4% increase from January with 496K home sales which would be a 19% increase year over year.
Source: MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor Jan|Feb ‘22
There are several reasons we expect to see this stronger number of home sales in January, but two of the substantial factors that will drive behavior are rising interest rates and inflation.
Inflation has now increased at its fastest pace in 40 years. And, how does inflation impact home prices? Inventory and interest rates.
Last week, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discussed the impact of inflation on interest rates with a Senate panel:
“But some higher prices, such as rents, could prove to be stickier. Rental costs, which have accelerated since summer, rose 0.4% in December, the third consecutive monthly increase. That’s significant because housing costs make up one-third of the government’s consumer price index.
Powell told Congress that if it becomes necessary to fight high inflation more aggressively, the Federal Reserve is prepared to accelerate the interest rate hikes it plans to begin this year. The Fed’s benchmark short-term rate, now pegged near zero, is expected to be bumped up at least three times this year.” (source)
Additionally, Altos Research has reported a few other leading indicators that are also pointing to a strong start to 2022, including immediate home sales trends and increased home prices. Their recent article on HousingWire shares more about this and how that is impacting this potential flurry of buyers at the beginning of the year.
The final piece that we think is worth keeping an eye on is how institutional buying will impact the market as financial institutions are hedging in residential real estate as it’s the least likely to go down in value.
According to a recent Bloomberg survey, 1 in 5 homes that were flipped by an iBuyer in 2021 were sold to institutional investors. With inventory already at such a low, if this trend continues, when will we see it rise again?
We’ll be watching all of this closely to see how this all plays out but based on these reports last week it appears there will likely be some shake-ups in the market this year.
Buckle up!
The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.
